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That was a really short twig season.
A lot of conflicting weather signals have occurred at the Birch Ridge Inn over the last several days.
First off, the Fall Foliage season went exceptionally long in the Killington region. Based upon over 10 years of taking fall foliage pictures and posting them on the blog, October 23rd is the latest fall foliage picture ever posted, matching the record set in 2011. The last fall foliage picture trends have been getting later. For the record, they are as follows :
- 2016 October 23
- 2015 October 21
- 2014 October 19
- 2013 October 17
- 2012 October 15
- 2011 October 23
- 2010 October 17
- 2009 October 20
- 2008 October 21
- 2007 October 19
- 2006 October 15
To be sure, there is no science in the end date of the fall foliage gallery pictures. The last date is the date that I judge that the fall colors have basically ceased to be of interest to fall foliage visitors to the Killington region. (Please note, this is not to state that fall colors are done in Vermont in general. Good color was being reported in southern Vermont by inn guests over the weekend.) While there is some oscillation in the end date, seaming to hold a pattern over 5 years, the information is anecdotal, not statistically significant. If you were to look at the fall foliage gallery, you may get the impression that the fall season is happening later. But the data sample is way to small to statiscally say that is happening... but anecdotally????
What is interesting about the last fall foliage picture of 2016 is what is on the ground around the inn. Snow.
To be sure, we have had snow around the inn in years past at this time of year. If we look at the Birch Ridge Inn snow stake, the first measurable snows have occurred as follows :
- 2016 October 23
- 2015 December 4
- 2014 November 2
- 2013 October 24
- 2012 November 3
- 2011 October 27
- 2010 October 14
- 2009 October 13
- 2008 October 22
- 2007 October 21
What is interesting to see when you compare the last fall foliage picture with the first snow stake picture is that the is some overlap between the 2. However, if you really look at the two data sets, you will see that in prior years, the first snow fall reported was generally a light dusting (or a heavy frost), barely putting a crust on the fallen leaves around the inn, not a general multi-inch snow fall like we have seen this year.
At this point, I will leave it to others to crystal ball the winter outlook for the 2016-2017 season. Suffice to say I am optimistic. But I will also give you the caveat that I am a small business owner in Vermont... a class of people who are usually optimistic.
Enough on the data... I did take some snow pictures today of the resort. The mountains of Killington are resplendent today in a deep white coat. Uphill skiers were out in force this morning taking early season turns. While the lifts at Killington are not turning for general skiing and riding, the resort is clearly making snow in a pattern that indicates that the official season opening can be any day now (or any hour for that matter.)
At the inn, we have had a good fall. We have a few weeks of work ahead of us to reconfigure the inn for the winter season... But our thoughts on the subject are very simple ... Let It Snow!